tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-23400750.post7261463968237743447..comments2023-11-03T11:32:01.540+00:00Comments on Thought Experiments : The Blog: The Unknowable FutureBryan Appleyardhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08276787058430388582noreply@blogger.comBlogger6125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-23400750.post-84423167125810636352008-05-26T08:27:00.000+00:002008-05-26T08:27:00.000+00:00The root of it is the human urge to believe we can...The root of it is the human urge to believe we can rationalise and therefore retain control of everything that affects us. <BR/><BR/>There is another urge to irrationalise things (and invoke magic, fate, God etc) but I can't quite work out if this is an opposite urge or the same one.Brithttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00390560583798960760noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-23400750.post-79083585593312803862008-05-25T18:46:00.000+00:002008-05-25T18:46:00.000+00:00Fact...........Central heating oil.......Mid 1997 ...Fact...........<BR/>Central heating oil.......<BR/>Mid 1997 = .09 per litre<BR/>May 2008 = .66 per litre<BR/>Statisticians, forecasters = guestimators.<BR/>Clueless, not required, waste of space, surplus to requirements, toss a coin for a more accurate assessment.maltyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02936465848907794425noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-23400750.post-27739533411711477072008-05-25T18:12:00.000+00:002008-05-25T18:12:00.000+00:00easy, economics is NOT a science, yes one or two c...easy, economics is NOT a science, yes one or two certain rules apply to supply and demand, but like Math too, its not a science it is a language.<BR/><BR/>As the equation or calculation gets longer and more variables are added, the margin for error grows, and time and human life is quite some variable.<BR/><BR/>As Popper said, the future is Open.<BR/>it always was and it will always be.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-23400750.post-17207086817468153192008-05-25T17:18:00.000+00:002008-05-25T17:18:00.000+00:00And people want governments to tell them they can....And people want governments to tell them they can.<BR/><BR/>Chris, what can't be forecasted so well is what technologies will be the best replacements for oil based energy. Government planners have not been the best at picking economic winners and losers. The market does a much better job at that.Duckhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08852569465893563139noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-23400750.post-54107485278046391312008-05-25T15:04:00.000+00:002008-05-25T15:04:00.000+00:00Forecasts are comfort blankets; they don't actuall...<I>Forecasts are comfort blankets; they don't actually protect you from monsters.</I><BR/><BR/>True, but goverments, and those who like to tell others how to run their lives, derive great power and self-satisfaction in pretending they can.Randyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03071928294799081845noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-23400750.post-80044164456400527552008-05-25T11:49:00.000+00:002008-05-25T11:49:00.000+00:00It is more a case of being aware of how uncertain ...It is more a case of being aware of how uncertain we are in our forecasts. There is a certain amount that can be forecasted--a bit like the weather, where certain systems are unstable and almost impossible to predict and others are stable and relatively easy to predict. The weather people have got quite good at realising and recognising their limitations.<BR/><BR/>It is when forecasting is Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com