Thursday, July 17, 2008
After Iran
I have now been told several times that an Israeli attack on Iran is very likely to inevitable either before or immediately after the American election. Assuming Iran's retaliation includes US targets, this would suck in America and, if before the election, probably get McCain elected. If after, then President Obama would find himself with a $2-300 oil price. This not really being my subject, I have no idea how to assess these matters. But, if true, then the post-oil world will begin in the next few months.
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A blog about, among other things, imaginary ideas - What ifs? and Imagine thats. What if photographs looked nothing like what we see with our eyes? Imagine that the Berlin Wall had never come down. What if we were the punchline of an interminable joke? All contributions welcome.
what a shame they don't have much grass - with all that sunshine we could loan them Marvin... that's the problem I think, greenery is so calming. that's why they gave us a word oasis.
ReplyDeleteThe Israelis can hardly do this at all and certainly not without US assistance. The only thing the Israelis are likely to achieve with their action is an Iranian nuclear weapons programme, and a crash programme at that--the exact same consequence as their bombing of the Osirak reactor. Their red line of the Iranians mastering the fuel cycle was crossed long ago.
ReplyDeleteOther consequences are a likely melt-down of the US and world economies and empowerment of countries sitting on oil supplies, none of which is going to help their security, nor will the blowing up of the middle east.
Indeedy the post-oil ere beckons. It will be totally self-inflicted.
The people who tell you an attack is almost inevitable are unrepresentative of the market. According to Tradesports, hard money - which is the only opinion that matters - puts the chance of an attack on Iran before March 09 at less than 40%:
ReplyDeletehttps://www.intrade.com/
So, wisdom of crowds, anyone?
Add the duty and taxes to oil here in the UK and we are already paying 300 a barrel, so we are already there.
ReplyDeleteAdd the duty and taxes to oil here in the UK and we are already paying 300 a barrel, so we are already there.
ReplyDeleteAt UK petrol-pump prices (ie with duty, tax, profit, etc.), oil is now more than 200 quid a barrel which means around 400 dollars at current exchange rates. If that is a kind of post-oil world, then so far people have adapted to it with remarkably little fuss.
I think CaptainB said here that one trigger for an attack on Iran would be Russia supplying the mullahs with more modern anti-aircraft defences. But I suspect that while countries in the Middle East would kick up no end of fuss in public, in private most might say "job well done" and soon calm down, particularly the Saudis. If true, this would make an attack more not less likely, though.
Maybe regime change can be effected in Iran, somehow. The problem isn't nukes themselves. We're now used to India and Pakistan having them, for example. It's nutty mullahs and Holocaust deniers + nukes.
A post-oil world is also a post-plastic world.
ReplyDeleteThis is a good thing, because it entails that children's toys will be made from metal once more, rather than plastic. A metal toy carries with it a sense of inertia and solidity. It is the absence of inertia in plastic toys which is responsible for the absence of moral responsibility in modern youth, and it is the ductility of plastic toys which is responsible for the spread of moral relativism in society. Plastic toys, therefore, are ultimately responsible for the knife-crime soliton sweeping up the estuary of our civilisation.
Ah yes, the great knife-crime non-wave.
ReplyDeleteI think you are on to something there, Gordon. There is practically no craftsmanship in toys now. They are cheap and disposable. And children realise this and treat them accordingly. And, as they reach their teenage years, this lack of respect for toys is translated into a more generalised lack of respect for the world of larger objects and people, that is, society. Yes, there has to be a link.
ReplyDeleteMy children have so many cheap, plastic toys, bought by well-meaning friends and relatives, that when I occasionally threaten to confiscate some of them, when they refuse to tidy up, they shrug with indifference. As if to say: So what? You can't confiscate them all. If my father had threatened to confiscate some of my toys I would have been traumatised by the mere thought of it. I had so few toys, I would play with them until they disintegrated. And even then, I would try to fix them. Toys don't get repaired these days, they are discarded.
So, I agree: good riddance to cheap, plastic toys.
will it mean a post-Blue Peter world too? no more sticky-back plastic and fairy liquid bottles. well, get down shep!
ReplyDeletemaybe it'll signal the end of the ridiculous mobile phone business - yay!
Neil, your pal Roger Scruton has a good diatribe against modern toys in News from Somewhere. Also Jacques Barzun notes the great difference between wooden and plastic toys. Plastic is crap.
ReplyDeleteWow, from the imminent threat of global war to the evils of plastic toys in ten comments. Your commenters are all bright chaps, Bryan, and I'm betting you can relax about Iran.
ReplyDeleteSo you actually had toys Neil; you must have lived in that big house at the top of our road. I remember making toys - box-girder bridges from matchsticks, tunnels from papier-mache for my trains and, a personal favourite, nicking my gran's magnifying glass to burn beetles alive using the sun's rays...my, what times we had! And I would still have my die-cast Dinky Toys (in their cardboard boxes) today, if my mother had not sold them to the bank manager to clear her loan, run up by taking us to stay in a B&B in Bognor for a week. My earliest memory of the dread plastic was when we all trooped up to the local Co-Op to see the first pots of Yogurt on the shelf. Little did I imagine that fifty years later, a link would (rightly)be made between those little pots, and the casual stabbings that are now a commonplace in our pulsating metropolis
ReplyDeleteUm, am I the only person who was surprised to see a "40% chance" of an Israeli attack on Iran (Chris) as not likely?
ReplyDeleteStatistically, that is a near certainty!
No, Susan it isn't. Otherwise Hillary Clinton would be the nominee of the Democratic Party and John McCain the next President of the United States. 40%, is a bit too high for my comfort, however. All the same, I'm not willing to risk any money betting the opposite.
ReplyDeleteAll in all, I prefer Gordon's take.
It's alright though even if Israel does bomb Iran because that will probably precipitate the reappearance of the 12th Imam aka the Mahdi and he will usher in a reign of perfect peace and justice on earth. So long as we agree to follow him that is, otherwise he'll kill us. But it would be mad not to follow him because he's going to usher in an era of perfect peace and justice. Even mushroom clouds have silver linings.
ReplyDeleteUntaxed oil coming out of the ground and taxed, retailed, refined petroleum is an apples and oranges comparison. If the Straits of Hormuz are closed down (Iran's real strategic deterrent--its the OIL stupid) then I can assure you that barrels of oil and fuel at the pump will be costing much more than they are now.
ReplyDeleteFor those that think bombing the Iranians makes any sense whatsoever were no doubt equally convinced that Saddam's nuclear weapons programme presented a danger to the future of humanity and masterminded 911, etc. But of course it is all different this time (with the refinement that the intelligence community are saying loudly and clearly and unanimously that there is no evidence of a problem).
See for example Jeff Huber's latest article, or almost anything that Ritter, Porter and Prather have been saying to Scott Horton at antiwar.com (or any of their articles there and elsewhere).
But would it be as easy to make models of the Millenium Falcons to play with if they have to be made out of wood?
ReplyDeleteIf so, no worries, but we need models of the Millenium Falcons for the sake of our young.
Re Iran, I agree with Mark. Most of The Iranians want their Government kicked into the sea anyway. What other country does this remind me of?
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