Monday, October 09, 2006
Happiness to Our People
I wake to discover North Korea has conducted a nuclear test. It is, says the official statement, 'a historic event that brought happiness to our military and people.' For Kim Jong-il, it is a rational step. People are much nicer to you if you can turn Beijing or Tokyo into an ash tray. But, in general, Kim is not rational. The Soviet Union was rational, its leaders made legible calculations, which is why we survived the Cold War. Now we have to deal with irrational possessors of nuclear weapons. I seem to remember Edward O.Wilson observing that if Hamadryas Baboons had nukes, the world would be destroyed in a couple of days. Slowly, irrevocably, unusually hairy fingers are finding the triggers.
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A blog about, among other things, imaginary ideas - What ifs? and Imagine thats. What if photographs looked nothing like what we see with our eyes? Imagine that the Berlin Wall had never come down. What if we were the punchline of an interminable joke? All contributions welcome.
I wonder about previous ancient knowledge, generally spiritual, which was looked upon as dangerous and to be kept from the profane, in relation to scientists and atomic power. Knowledge doesn't get much more dangerous than this, nor does it get much more profane than the political field in its varying degrees of extremity. I suppose twas expecting too much for the scientists to act with great trepidation in this regard.
ReplyDeleteA (minor) success, however, for British defence analysis. The Joint Doctrine and Concepts Centre (JDCC) produced a document in 2003 called 'Strategic trends'. The summary can still be found here: http://ics.leeds.ac.uk/papers/pmt/exhibits/1993/strategictrends.pdf
ReplyDeleteAmongst the predictions it made were: "Weapons of mass effect, and their means of delivery, will proliferate significantly by 2015. It is judged that North Korea, Iran and Iraq will develop nuclear weapons before 2015 in the absence of external intervention."
I have to admit that if I was an insane dictator I would want a nuclear weapon or two. Deterring the USA from invading my country would be high on my to-do list especially after the lesson of Iraq.
ReplyDeleteWell, Tom, as I indicated, one can see Kim's point. And, Gordon, you never cease to amaze.
ReplyDelete