Tuesday, September 18, 2007
Er, Look, Over Here, Big War
Okay, time for a little perspective here. Yes, I know about Northern Rock, I know about the McCanns, I am fully aware that Gordo's doing his Macavity act again and I am not ignorant of the fact that Jose seems to be having one of his turns. But has anybody noticed we are on the brink of a gigantic regional conflagration in the Middle East? Now, happy as I would be to see Iran deprived of its nukes, I am not at all happy about the people who would be doing the depriving. Israel does not currently have any serious leadership and the appalling idiot John 'Krusty the Klown' Bolton keeps appearing to tell us how it's got to be. I need CaptainB on this matter. Now.
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A blog about, among other things, imaginary ideas - What ifs? and Imagine thats. What if photographs looked nothing like what we see with our eyes? Imagine that the Berlin Wall had never come down. What if we were the punchline of an interminable joke? All contributions welcome.
Your wish is my command. There are two proxy wars going on. US v. Iran in Iraq, and Russia v. US over Iran.
ReplyDeleteDelighted that the US is in a quagmire in IRaq, Russia sees a window of opportunity here by using Iran as a matador's cape. It can retrieve its inner USSR empire (in the Caucasus and maybe Baltic) by bidding high not to supply Iran and Syria with fancy air defence systems as well as nuclear plants. The US military is totally stretched in Iraq, Afghnaistan and South Korea. That means only its airforce is up for combat in Iran. A Russian defence system would make the initial anti-anti aircraft defence raids v. costly for the US (loss of pilots and planes) making the next phase of bombing '2000' targets impossible as more losses rack up. The price of not doing any of this is for the US to drop Georgia etc. and to pull off the democracy attack dogs in the Ukraine and Baltic. It will also have to relinquish plans to build a missile shield in Poland, and to stop deploying Polish NATO troops in the Baltic. All of which Putin will say is a big step in restoring Russian might. If the US decides to hit a Russian ship delivering missiles during a war with Iran, then Russia will invade Georgia and the baltic states with its much reformed army.
Key development in the next few weeks is Putin's visit to Tehran on 16th October for the Caspian region pow wow. That's when he'll make his move. Like watching a great chess player at work. Meanwhile we have every confidence in the real US president (Dick Cheney), a newly submissive Dr Rice, and the war drum bangers currently arriving on our shores and screens. Will that do? Still awaiting your thoughts on Northern Rock by the way Apple Strudel.
Cheney? Confidence? Irony? But. otherwise, thanks, though you don't mention the Israeli problem. And, see below, I thought John Gapper in the FT said it all about Northern Rock.
ReplyDeleteWhen I got up this morning I was filled with deep foreboding. And I can't quite put my finger on it. Is something terrible going to happen in the world very soon? Everywhere I look there is uncertainty and fear about the future. Has the world gone mad again? And I should be happy really - the guy is coming this morning to finish the tiling in my new kitchen. I've had a tough time on the home improvement front. One simple job mushroomed and my life has been hellish all week. But despite surviving relatively unscathed, something's not right. I just know it. It's in the air. That reminds me, I must check the extractor works.
ReplyDeleteThe Israeli strike on Syria doesn't seem to have generated howls of protest from the usual suspects. Why?
ReplyDeleteThe Baltics, Captain? I was mentally prepared for much of your answer but not The Baltics. Will the European Union go to war to defend its member states? (Who is it, the Dutch or the Belgians who have a unionized army available M-F, 9-5 only.) Snark aside, what are the EU's choices in such an event?
ReplyDeleteShould the series of events that you mention come to pass, they will have a radical impact not only on European politics but the American presidential election as well. The GOP field will effectively drop to 2: the war horse and the warrior. On the Dem side, I think only Hillary could survive that scenario.
Captainb - there are a number of websites claiming that this whole story has been blown out of proportion by officials within the Bush administration e.g armscontrolwonk.com. May I ask where you get your info from ?
ReplyDeleteI should add andresullivan.com has a round-up of relevant links on this matter, including a syrian blogger who suggests no bombs were dropped. Im afraid that given the Times' credulous approach to the claims Saddam had WMD's, I am going to assume nothing happened until proven otherwise.
ReplyDeleteYou can thank judy miller for the times' lack of objective scrutiny. i mean, the nytimes. did the london times also lose its skepticism during that crucial time?
ReplyDeleteSimon D,
ReplyDeleteEr no. Its spooky.
Hmmn, the risk with bidding high is that you end up with nothing if your opponent folds. To extract the maximum, Russia (and perhaps China) might need to keep the US as close to the edge as possible without tipping the US over it. Interesting to know what fallback concession they're after in the event of a negotiated settlement. Of course, the nearer we get to the US spring primaries, the less room for manoeuvre Cheney and co may have. Suddenly launching a war in the middle of an election probably wouldn't go down very well, least of all after the fiascos of trying to find a smoking gun in the form of Iraq's alleged WMDs. Still, maybe a move before the spring would be the neocon's last throw at proving they're right. Shudder.
ReplyDeleteAs for the Israelis, I doubt they sent a flight of F-15s over northern Syria just to pass the time of day. If nothing else, it's served notice on Syria and Iran that their existing air defences are pwned. Enter Putin, as CaptainB points out.